Thanks for following the projection! The full result has now been published, and Karol Nawrocki has won the presidential election.
This projection is based on the results published by PKW.
The projection is based on the results in precincts that have already reported. The remaining precinct results are projected based on the trends observed in those that have reported. It does not take the exit poll into account. As with all projections, the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The projection will initially be quite uncertain but will become more accurate as more of the votes are counted.
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Note that the results from three precincts, those for military bases located abroad, are confidential.
Download the raw csv here (includes precinct-level projections).